The short answer, explained
Most HMRC investigations are risk-based rather than random. HMRC's Connect system cross-references your returns against data from banks, land registries, online platforms and other government departments.
Common triggers include figures that don't match third-party reports, repeated losses, sudden income drops, high expense claims relative to turnover, or an industry known for higher error rates.
A small number of cases are still selected at random, partly to test the overall system, but this accounts for a minority of enquiries.

