The short answer, explained
HMRC can open an enquiry into any Self Assessment return within the statutory window, and it does not need a specific suspicion to do so. Most enquiries follow some form of risk indicator, such as figures that look inconsistent with previous years, industry benchmarks, or third-party data HMRC holds.
A smaller number of enquiries are opened at random as part of HMRC's overall compliance strategy, to maintain a general deterrent effect and to check that its risk models remain accurate.

